When the Bills (3-1) travel to take on the Chiefs (2-2) in the penultimate game of NFL Week 5 on “Sunday Night Football”, they will look take early control in the race for the top seed and lone bye in the AFC playoffs. Getting to 4-1 while the Chiefs fall to 2-3 would be huge. The alternative is the two teams being even at 3-2, which won’t help the Bills down the line.
This game has a ton of implications to begin the second month of the 2021 season. Josh Allen, after a slow start, is rolling for the Bills. Patrick Mahomes has made a few mistakes, too, but has the Chiefs’ offense completely back on track.
The Bills’ defense has been balling out, with two shutouts in four games, but they also have four bottom-level QBs. Mahomes represents a big upgrade. Meanwhile, the much-maligned Chiefs’ defense will be under pressure to contain Allen.
Here’s everything to know about betting on Bills vs Chiefs in Week 5, including updated odds, trends and our expert’s prediction for “Sunday Night Football.”
Bills vs. Chiefs odds for ‘Sunday Night Football’
- Spread: Chiefs by 3
- Over/under: 56.5
- Moneyine: Bills +126, Chiefs -148
(betting odds per FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Chiefs have been the standard home-field advantage field-goal favorites since the initial lines were released. The points are a very high total for this stage in the season.
Bills vs. Chiefs all-time series
The Bills have the advantage over the years with a 26-23-1 record. The Chiefs have a two-game winning streak from last season, winning 38-24 in the playoffs after winning 26-17 in Buffalo. Kansas City also has taken five of the past six meetings. The Bills won on the road in 2017, 16-10, but that was pre Mahomes.
Three trends to know
—70 percent of spread bettors side with the Chiefs to take care of their small number at home.
—62 percent of over/under bettors think the total has gone up too high and the teams will play at a lesser scoring pace.
—The Bills are 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the spread in their past 10 games with the total going over five times. The Chiefs are 6-4 SU but only 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 games. The total has gone over six times in that span.
Three things to watch
The Bills’ key defensive injury
Linebacker Matt Milano (hamstring) is having an outstanding season cleaning up everything for Buffalo on the second level. But he’s set to miss this game, which is a huge loss with Mahomes working the field well against them. That should help tight end Travis Kelce rebound from a rare quiet game and the backs get involved more in the passing game, too.
The Chiefs’ key defensive injury
Defensive tackle Chris Jones is an important disruptive force but he’s battling a wrist injury. The Chiefs are getting healthier in other areas, however, including pass rush and secondary, just in time for Allen. They need to find the right blend of bend-but-don’t-break and aggressive play so they can get off the field and put Mahomes on it more.
How will Josh Gordon help?
Gordon is back in the NFL to try to support Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill as an extra big-play weapon for Mahomes. The Chiefs have been looking for a reliable No. 2 option for the outside to complement the versatile Hill and Gordon has the speed to be schemed open in his first action. The Bills’ cornerbacks are playing well but Gordon can help create better matchups overall.
Stats that matter
223 yards on 35 touches and two TDs. That’s the production of Chiefs’ second-year running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the past two games after a slow start and limited usage. Last year, he had his best rookie rushing performance against the Bills, 26 carries for 161 yards. The Bills are the No. 4 run defense, so the Chiefs need to stay patient early because their interior offensive line can wear down Buffalo over the course of the game.
Bills vs. Chiefs prediction
The Bills have been the better all-around team on paper with their play. But the Chiefs haven’t performed up to their usual capacity, either. Mahomes and the rest of the Super Bowl-winning veterans didn’t enjoy being under .500 going into Week 4 at Philadelphia and played with that familiar aggressive relentlessness. The Chiefs won’t go back to being a losing team at home as Mahomes’ exploits the few holes the Bills’ defense made to boost his favorite targets and outduels Allen.
Chiefs 34, Bills 27